Daily market analysis

Week Ahead: Possible Rate Hikes in Australia, Canada, and the Eurozone

September 5, 2022

The US is scheduled to report its ISM Services PMI this week, with interest rates data from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank also due. Investors also anticipate GDP and Employment condition data from Australia and Canada, respectively.

Image source: forexfactory.com 

RBA Rate Statement | 6 September 2022

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 50bps to 1.85% during its August meeting, following 50-bps hikes in July and June and 25bps in May. This brings the cash rate to a level not seen since April 2016.

According to the board, rate hikes over the past few months were necessary to bring inflation down and to create a more sustainable demand and supply, adding that it would be taking further tightening measures.

Analysts predict that RBA will raise its benchmark interest rate by another 50bps at this month’s board meeting.

US ISM Services PMI | 6 September 2022

ISM Services PMI increased more than expected in July of 2022, reaching 56.7, the highest level in three months. 

Analysts had predicted that the index would be at 54.8.

Australian Gross Domestic Product | 7 September 2022

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian economy expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2022. This was the second consecutive quarter of growth, following a contraction in the third quarter because of the Delta outbreak. 

We expect economic activity to remain resilient during the second quarter, with additional 1.3% growth.

Bank of Canada Rate Statement | 7 September 2022 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the target for its overnight rate by 1% to 2.5% on 13 July 2022, a move not seen since 1998, surprising market-watchers expecting a 75bps hike. The BoC further signalled that it would continue to hike interest rates in the coming meeting to curb rising inflation.

The BoC will likely raise its overnight rate by 25bps in September, taking its official cash rate to 2.75%.

ECB Press Conference and Interest Rate Decision | 8 September 2022 

The European Central Bank (ECB) increased its key interest rate by 50bps at its July 2022 meeting, the first increase since 2011. The move ends its eighth year of negative rates after years of keeping rates low to stimulate growth and inflation.

The European Central Bank’s policymakers said that the 50bps rate hike in July was necessary as a form of frontloading, bringing forward a policy move to increase the effectiveness of its price stability mandate. The minutes from the ECB’s July meeting said they wanted to normalise monetary policy rather than indicate a change in the rate to be expected as the end point of the normalisation cycle.

Analysts expect that ECB will raise its interest rate by another 50bps.

Canadian Employment Data | 9 September 2022

The Canadian economy lost over 30,000 jobs in July, extending the 43,000 cuts from the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9%, the lowest on record. Analysts forecast another 20,000 additional jobs for August, which would cause the unemployment rate to remain at 4.9%.