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Daily market analysis

Week Ahead: Markets to Focus on FOMC Meeting Minutes and US Jobs Reports

July 3, 2023

As we kick off a new week, market watchers will focus on two key events: the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and the US jobs reports. Both have the potential to influence market trends significantly and offer vital insights into the health of the US economy.

Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (3 July 2023)

Switzerland’s CPI increased by 0.30% in May 2023 from the previous month. 

For June 2023 data, which is set to be released on 3 July, analysts expect a 0.2% increase.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (3 July 2023)

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in May of 2023 from 47.1 in April. 

Analysts predict that for June 2023 data, scheduled for release on July 3rd, the index will be at 48.

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Statement (4 July 2023)

The RBA unexpectedly raised its cash rate to 4.1% in June, following a similar hike in May. The door remains open for further increases due to persistently high inflation and rising wage growth. 

The next cash rate will be released on 4 July 2023, with analysts expecting the central bank to hold its interest rate at 4.1%.

FOMC Meeting Minutes (5 July 2023)

Fed Chair Powell stated that multiple rate hikes are anticipated this year to combat inflation. The Fed has already raised the policy rate by 5 points since last year, impacting areas like housing and investment. 

While the funds rate target remained the same in June, there could be a rise to 5.6% by year-end if economic and inflation rates don’t decelerate.

US ISM Services PMI (6 July 2023)

The US ISM Services PMI fell to 50.3 in May 2023 from 51.9 in April, pointing to the fifth consecutive month of expansion in the services sector, but the slowest in the current sequence. 

Data for June 2023 is scheduled for release on 6 July 2023, with analysts anticipating a higher figure of 50.

Canada Employment Change (7 July 2023)

The Canadian economy shed 17.3K jobs in May 2023, the first decline in nine months.The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% after remaining at 5% for the five previous months, the first monthly increase in the unemployment rate since August 2022. 

Analysts predict the June 2023 data, due on 7 July 2023, will show a further job loss of 10,000 and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.4%.

US Jobs Report (7 July 2023)

The US economy unexpectedly added 339K jobs in May 2023, the most in four months. Concurrently, the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in May 2023, the highest since October 2022.

Analysts predict that for June 2023, set to be released on 7 July, the Non-Farm Employment will add approximately 250k jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.7%.

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