Daily market analysis

Week ahead: Markets anticipate significant movements from the US, UK, and Australia

August 1, 2022

The US market is focusing on Non-Farm employment figures this week. The economy added 372,000 payrolls in June of 2022, which is higher than the market forecast of 268,000. Meanwhile, the July projection is at 255,000 additional jobs.

US unemployment rate remains the same in June 2022 at 3.6%, which is similar to the previous months and remains the lowest since February. Market projections are still at 3.6%.

Investors are also keenly anticipating the interest rate decisions of two major central banks: the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The Bank of England announced its fifth consecutive interest rate hike in June 2022, with a primary bank rate of 25bps to 1.25%, the largest in 13 years to battle inflation. BoE is committed to decreasing inflation to 2%.

BoE also anticipates an inflation rate of above 9% in the following months and above 11% in October. Meanwhile, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to go down in the first half of the forecast year, which may lead to a 25bps hike in August.

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate by 50 bps to 1.35% in July, following the 50bps hike in June and 25bps hike in May. According to the board, there is no need for massive monetary support given the economy’s strength and price pressures. In addition, they are committed to strengthening the amount and timing guided by incoming data. Market analysts forecast a 50bps hike in August.