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Daily market analysis

Week ahead: All eyes on US Non-Farm Employment Change and FOMC Meeting Minutes

January 3, 2023

The US will release the Non-Farm Employment Change and FOMC Meeting Minutes this week. 

The Non-farm Employment Change is expected to show a total of 220,000 jobs added in December, down from the 263,000 jobs added in November. Forecasters also expect the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 3.7%. 

Meanwhile, the Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee will shed further light on policy intentions going forward.

Here are the key market events for the week ahead:

Swiss Consumer Price Index (4 January)

The Consumer Price Index in Switzerland stood at 0% in November of 2022, unchanged from the previous month. 

Analysts expect the index to decrease by 0.3% in December.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (4 January)

The US Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49 in November 2022 from 50.2 in October, its first contraction since May 2020.

Analysts expect the index to remain at 49.

US JOLTS Job Openings (4 January)

US job openings dropped by 353,000 to 10.3 million in October 2022, according to the JOLTS report. This may indicate that demand for workers has started to slow amid a softer economic forecast and higher interest rates.

Analysts expect that the number of available jobs will decrease more in November to 10.1 million.

FOMC Meeting Minutes (5 January)

In its last monetary policy meeting of 2022, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 50bps to 4.25%-4.5%. This was its seventh consecutive rate hike.

The Fed expects that interest rates would reach 5.1% in 2023, 4.1% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (5 January)

The US private sector added only 127,000 jobs in November of 2022, below economists’ expectations.

Economists expect ADP Non-Farm to create another 150,000 jobs in December.

Canada Employment Change (6 January)

In November 2022, 10,100 jobs were added to the Canadian economy, while the unemployment rate stood at 5.1%, decreasing from the previous month’s rate of 5.2%.

Analysts predict that employment will grow by an additional 60,000 positions over the next month, with the unemployment rate to stand at 5.2%.

US Non-Farm Employment Change (6 January)

The US non-farm payrolls report for November showed an increase of 263,000 jobs following a downwardly revised 284,000 gain in October. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, close to September’s 3.5%.

Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.7% while non-farm payrolls will increase by 220,000 for December.

US ISM Services PMI (6 January)

The US Institute for Supply Management’s Services Index jumped to 56.5 in November from 54.4 in October. It is expected to decline slightly to 53 in December.