Daily market analysis

US stocks rose to a seven-week high as investors pushed upon Fed rate rises

July 29, 2022

US stock rallied on Thursday, preserving its bullish momentum and climbing to a seven-week high as investors pared their bets on Fed’s aggressively rate hikes amid the weak economic data. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q2 showed that the economy entered a technical recession after contracting by 0.9%. However, investors remained their speculation that the Federal Reserve could reduce the pace of monetary tightening despite the data showing that the economy is losing momentum.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell also said on Wednesday that rate hikes would slow at one point and he shed quite some light on the future of monetary policy. Inflation measures will likely fall amid the slowing economy, which might bring the end of the tightening cycle nearer. In the Eurozone, Germany’s inflation data flashed mixed signals as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 7.5% YoY but the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) climbed to 8.5% yearly.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both advanced on Thursday as the dismal economic data eased the expectation for aggressively rate hikes by the Fed. The S&P 500 was up 1.2% on a daily basis and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced with a 1.0% gain for the day. Ten out of eleven sectors stayed in positive territory as the Real Estate and the Utilities sectors are the best performing among all groups, rising 3.70% and 3.53%, respectively. The Nasdaq 100 meanwhile climbed the least with a 0.9% gain on Thursday and the MSCI World index rose 1.3% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar declined on Thursday, remaining under selling pressure and retreated toward the 106.1 level as the safe-haven assets performed better against the greenback yesterday. The DXY witnessed some buying and touched a daily top near the 107 mark during the European session, but then failed to preserve its upside traction meanwhile surrendered most of its daily gains. The market’s expectations of no more aggressive rate hikes from the Fed and the release of weaker US Q2 Gross Domestic Product data both exerted bearish pressure on the US dollar.

GBP/USD edged higher with a 0.18% gain on Thursday amid a weaker US dollar across the board. However, the political jitters in the UK and Brexit woes might limit the upside for the cable. The GBP/USD pair dropped to a daily low below 1.211 level in the late European session, then regained upside traction to recover most of its daily losses. Meanwhile, EUR/USD failed to overcome recent losses and remained under bearish pressure after dropping to a daily low below 1.012 level in the European session. The pair was up almost 0.05% for the day.

Gold surged with a 1.25% gain for the day after refreshing its daily high above the $1756 mark in the late US trading session, as the slowing economy and the renewed weakness in the greenback both lend strong support to the precious metal. Meanwhile, WTI oil failed to preserve its upside traction and retreated to the $97 area on Thursday.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

The metal, XAUUSD, gathers bullish momentum for the second day after the US data showed that the economy contracted in the second quarter, thus boosting XAUUSD. From the technical perspective, XAUUSD builds on the overnight upside rebound above the resistance of 1748. The upward breakout gained some follow-through traction on Thursday. The four-hour outlook turns bullish as XAUUSD lands within the upper bounce of the Bollinger band and the RSI indicator hovers within the positive territory. XAUUSD might consolidate slightly above and below 1748 as the RSI has reached the overbought condition. Stably sustaining above the level would support XAUUSD’s upside.

Resistance: 1769, 1790, 1815

Support: 1748, 1722, 1680

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY falls sharply following the less hawkish Fed. From the technical perspective, USDJPY surrenders after failing to defend the crucial support level of 136.26 in the early Asian session. The intraday decline has pushed USDJPY towards the 0% Fib. Retracement of 134.34. The outlook of USDJPY becomes bearish as the pair officially trades below the bullish channel. In order to reclaim its upside stance, USDJPY needs to at least climb above 136.26. On the contrary, the breakout of the immediate support of 134.34 would confirm another downside momentum toward 131.00.

Resistance: 134.75, 136.52, 137.06, 137.61

Support: 134.34

USDCAD (4-Hour Chart)

USDCAD makes a meaningful recovery after hitting the support level of 1.2795. The outlook of USDCAD remains bearish as the pair continues to trade below the descending trend line. In the meantime, the RSI stays in the negative territory, suggesting that buyers are on the sideline. Failure to defend the immediate level of 1.2795 would accelerate the downside. On the flip side, USDCAD needs to trade above the immediate hurdle of 1.2896 in order to claim its bullish stance.

Resistance: 1.2896, 1.2959, 1.3009

Support: 1.2795

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
EURGerman Unemployment Change (Jul)15:5515K
EURGerman GDP (QoQ) (Q2)16:000.1%
EURCPI (YoY) (Jul)17:008.6%
USDCore PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun)20:300.5%
CADGDP (MoM) (May)20:30-0.2%