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Daily market analysis

Market prefers safe-haven instruments at the start of the year

January 4, 2023

The market started the year 2023 in a safety mode, creating demand for US Dollars and Gold as safe-haven instruments while waiting for this week’s US key economic data and events.

The dollar advances, the yen stabilizes and the oil price drops sharply. US shares market falls lead to Asia stocks facing muted opening. The yield on 10-Year Treasuries falls by most in more than a month. \

US’s four most representative benchmark indexes DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ and SOX were all close lower. Shares in Asia faced a muted opening Wednesday after a decline in US stocks and the price of oil signalled unease about the dimming outlook for the global economy. Treasuries and the dollar rallied, and the yen stabilized after a Tuesday jump. Equity futures for Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong each rose less than 1%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 14 basis points to 3.74%, the biggest decline in more than a month. An index of the dollar rallied by the most in two weeks.

The S&P 500 ended Tuesday 0.4% lower, weighed down by energy and tech stocks. Among all eleven sectors in S&P500, Comm SVC, Financials Index, Real Estate Index, Industrials Index, and Utilities Indes gain positive price returns.  As for the Energy Index field, dropped by 3.62% on a daily loss.

Main Pairs Movement

The Dollar index, which tracks the U.S. Greenback against a basket of other major foreign currencies, surged more than 1% throughout Tuesday’s trading. The first official U.S. trading day witnessed a broad-based sell-off in the equities market, while market participants bid up the U.S. currency. Despite the surge in Dollar value, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield remained subdued over yesterday’s trading. The benchmark yield currently sits at 3.759% and the U.S. 2-year treasury yield sits at 4.382%.

EURUSD traded 1.11% lower throughout Tuesday’s trading. Risk-averse sentiment across markets helped buoy the Dollar against the Euro.

Cable lost 0.64% throughout Tuesday’s trading. The British Pound fared worse against the Dollar as market participants flighted to safety.

The Dollar denominated Gold rose 0.87% throughout Tuesday’s trading. The precious metal gained ground as market participants started the new year with caution in mind.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EUR/USD pair declined sharply on Tuesday, witnessing heavy bearish pressure and has managed to erase a small portion of its daily losses near the 1.0560 mark amid the resurgent US Dollar demand. The pair is now trading at 1.0543, posting a 1.14% loss daily. EUR/USD stays in the negative territory amid a stronger US Dollar across the board, as the greenback started the day on a firm footing and advanced above 140.70 with investors returning from the New Year holiday. On the economic data front, the S&P Global Manufacturing Index from the US came at 46.2 in December, which is unchanged from the flash reading. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which will be crucial for the EUR/USD traders to watch. In the Eurozone, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Germany revealed that inflation declined to 8.6% every year in December and came in below the market expectation of 9%. The reading made it difficult for the Euro to gather recovery momentum today.

For the technical aspect, RSI indicator 28 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair could experience a directional change in the near term as the RSI is in an oversold zone. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price witnessed heavy selling and dropped out of the lower band, therefore the downside traction should persist. In conclusion, we think the market will be bearish as long as the 1.0583 resistance line holds. On the downside, a break below the 1.0512 support could favour the bears.

Resistance:  1.0583, 1.0710

Support: 1.0512, 1.0467, 1.0315

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

GBP/USD dropped to fresh multi-week lows near 1.1900 on Tuesday. Despite the absence of a fundamental factor, the US dollar outperforms other pairs as investors return from the new year holiday. GBP/USD, therefore, came under heavy bearish pressure. In the Meanwhile, political jitters in the UK seem to weigh on the Pound. The Telegraph reported over the weekend that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had shelved the childcare reform that was designed to help parents save money and get back to work. In addition, the first of five consecutive days of national rail strikes have begun on Tuesday.

For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator is 40 figures as of writing, suggesting the bearish traction will remain in the near-term technical outlook as the RSI stays below the mid-line. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price dropped below the average and now hovering around the lower bound, signalling some downside momentum. In conclusion, we think the market is still in bearish mode. If the price close negative below the current support at 1.1942 on the 4H chart. It may head to test the next support at 1.1765. For more price action, eye on tier 1 economic figures. In the US, the economic calendar remains busy with the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI Index for December. In the UK, Mortgage Approvals and Lending would be revealed.

Resistance: 1.2095, 1.2212, 1.2334

Support: 1.1942, 1.1765

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Gold prices were volatile on Tuesday after returning to normal trading activity. Earlier XAU/USD soared to $1,849.96, a multi-month high, and then started to decline as the dollar regather its strength in the mid-European trading session. At the time of writing, the gold price held around $1,830. That said, the pullback in gold price seems limited, as the US treasury yields fall modestly, which favours non-yielding gold. Gold traders now await the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI Index for December, which may provide cues for future monetary policy.

For the technical aspect, RSI indicator 71 figures as of writing, suggesting strong momentum in the near term. On the other hand, the pair could stage some downside correction as the RSI is in the overbought zone. For the Bollinger Bands, the price slightly pulls back after touching the upper bound signalling the lack of further momentum. In conclusion, we think the market is still in bullish mode as long as the price keeps rallying above the upward trend line. However, the gold price can stage correction as technical analysis shows price pressure. On the downside, if a price drops below the trend line, it may change its current uptrend and head to test the next support at $1,775.

Resistance: 1842, 1857

Support: 1775, 1735

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
USDISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)23:0048.5
USDJOLTs Job Openings (Nov)23:0010M