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Daily market analysis

JOLTS reported lower, US Dollar Weakened

October 5, 2022

The U.S. stocks market rose for a second straight session on Tuesday as investors hoped that the Federal Reserve may ease its aggressive tightening stance in response to employment data. The S&P 500 climbed 112 points (+2.90%) to 3,790, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 352 points (+2.93%) to 11,582 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 825 points (+2.62%) to 30,316.

In August, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported 10,053 million job openings, a 14-month low and significantly below the projected 11,1 million. In August, factory orders remained unchanged from the previous month, despite a projected 0.3% decline. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond decreased by 0.4 basis points to 3.635%.

Twitter (TWTR), the social networking platform, surged 22.24% to $52 as Elon Musk plans to proceed with his acquisition of Twitter for the original proposed share price of $54.20. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker, rose 2.9% to $249.44.

Main Pairs Movement

The Dollar Index dropped 1.27 per cent during yesterday’s session. Tuesday saw the dollar decline versus most major currencies as the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury declined.

During yesterday’s trading, the EURUSD appreciated 1.67 per cent and closed at a new weekly high. As the Euro continues to capitalise on the weaker Dollar, parity is nearly attained.

Cable increased 1.33 per cent during yesterday’s session. The British Pound has extended its winning streak to five days.

XAUUSD finished higher at approximately $1724 per ounce as the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note decreased and weakened the Dollar.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The EUR/USD pair advanced on Tuesday, gathering recovery momentum and refreshing its daily high near the parity level. EUR/USD stays in the positive territory amid a weaker US dollar across the board, as the recent pullback in the US Treasury bond yields from a multi-year peak has weighed on the safe-haven greenback for the second day of the week.

For the technical aspect, the Stochastic indicator is at an overbought level as of writing, suggesting that slower bulls are potentially in movement as the indicator is starting to bend lower. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price rebounded towards the upper band from the moving average, therefore the upside traction should persist. In conclusion, we think the market will be bullish as the pair is testing the parity level of 1.000 as its resistance level.

Resistance:  1.0000, 1.0015, 1.0040

Support: 0.9955, 0.9925, 0.9880

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

The GBP/USD pair surged on Tuesday, preserving its upside momentum and extending its daily rally towards a fresh 10-day high above 1.14 in the second half of the day amid the UK government’s U-turn on the fiscal plan. At the time of writing, the cable stays in positive territory with a 1.02% gain for the day. For the British pound, reports suggested that British Prime Minister Liz Truss and Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng would reverse a cut to the 45% rate of income tax for the highest earners, which provided a strong boost to the British pound. UK Finance Minister also confirmed later that they will not go ahead with that fiscal plan.

For the technical aspect, the Stochastic indicator is at the overbought level as of writing, suggesting that slower bulls are potentially in movement as the indicator is starting to bend lower. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price rebounded towards the upper band from the moving average, therefore the upside traction should persist. In conclusion, we think the market will be bullish as the pair is heading to test the 1.1475 resistance. A steeper rebound could be expected if the ongoing rally extends above the aforementioned resistance.

Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1535

Support: 1.1410, 1.1350, 1.1290

XAUUSD (4-Hour Chart)

As the US dollar came under bearish pressure amid the retreating US bond yields in early the week, the pair XAU/USD regained upside momentum and extended its rally to fresh multi-week highs above the $1,729 level during the US trading session. XAU/USD is trading at $1,720 at the time of writing, rising 1.60% daily. The sharp decline witnessed in the US Treasury bond yields is acting as a tailwind for the precious metal, as the US Dollar Index is down 1,27% on the day. Meanwhile, the probability of one more 75 basis points Fed rate hike in November has declined toward 50% while investors now waiting for the key US labour market report, which will play a key role in influencing Fed rate hike expectations and provide a fresh directional impetus to gold.

For the technical aspect, Stochastic inside the overbought level with a potential of bending lower, suggesting the pair’s bullish outlook in the near term will continue with a short-term lower movement. For the Bollinger Bands, the price witnessed fresh buying and moved out of the upper band and then back in, therefore a strong continuation of the upside trend could be expected to be slower. In conclusion, we think the market will be bullish as the pair is testing the 1730 resistance. A sustained strength above that level might favour the bull and open the door for additional gains.

Resistance: 1730, 1740, 1750

Support: 1705, 1690

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
NZDOfficial Cash Rate09:003.50%
NZDRBNZ Rate Statement 09:00 
USDADP Non-Farm Employment Change20:15200K
USDISM Services PMI22:0056.0