Daily market analysis

Fed rate raised by 75 basis points; Fed acting swiftly to combat inflation

July 28, 2022

In response to Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s less hawkish remarks after the central bank’s monetary policy decision, US stocks jumped on Wednesday, regaining upside momentum and making a significant return. Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve stated that it had increased the main benchmark rate by 75 basis points to a range of 2.25 to 2.5%, which was in line with market expectations and imposed significant downward pressure on the US currency.

In the news conference, Powell also refuted the notion that the United States is in a recession, stating that the Federal Reserve is moving swiftly to combat inflation. The market’s fears of a recession have been allayed by the comments, which have worked as a tailwind for the equities markets. Fears of an energy crisis have increased in the Eurozone as a result of the German gas regulator’s statement that energy costs could increase considerably owing to the shutdown of the main Russian gas pipeline.

On Wednesday, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed, as about 85% of S&P 500 companies rose and the Nasdaq 100 experienced its greatest one-day surge since November 2020. The S&P 500 increased by 2.6% on a daily basis, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.4%. The Communication Services and Information Technology sectors performed the best among all categories, growing 5.11% and 4.29%, respectively. All eleven sectors remained in positive territory. The Nasdaq 100 gained the most on Wednesday with a 4.3% increase, while the MSCI World index advanced 1.9% for the day.

Main Pairs Movement

Following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, the dollar declined. As anticipated, the central bank upped the benchmark rate. Following the FOMC Press Conference, DXY dropped below 106.4. In addition to the Fed’s monetary policy decision, the market responded to chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in which he stated that he did not foresee a recession and sought to allay congress’ recession fears. Thursday’s announcement of the US’s GDP estimate for the second quarter will also be closely monitored by investors.

Wednesday saw a 1.08% increase in GBP/USD due to a lower US currency. Investors interpreted the Federal Reserve’s consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes and admission that production and spending slowed as “dovish.” After the FOMC meeting, the pound exceeds 1,218. EUR/USD surpassed 1.022 as well. Despite the intensifying oil crisis, cable grew 0.82%.

As a result of the Fed’s restrained comments on Wednesday, gold reached a day high above $1740. WTI recovered positive momentum and surpassed $97.6 per barrel.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD(4-Hour Chart)

Gold climbs above 1720 with an initial reaction to the US Fed, whose decision to raise the interest rates by 75 basis points as expected. Technically speaking, gold still trades in the tight range above and below 1722. In the meantime, gold remains on the midline of the Bollinger band, showing its directionlessness; however, the RSI indicator at the moment skews to the upside, suggesting that the near-term outlook turns bullish. On the downside, if gold falls below 1722, then its momentum would turn bearish as it would trade within the lower bounce of the Bollinger band.

Resistance: 1722, 1748, 1769

Support: 1680.99

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY loses traction as the Fed signals that it could slow the pace of rate hikes, causing the greenback to lose interest. From the technical perspective, despite the downward price action, USDJPY remains bullish as it stays within the ascending channel as well as the 20 Simple Moving Average. As long as USDJPY can stay above 136.52 and the bullish channel, then the outlook of the pair remains upside. On the flip side, a breakout of 136.52 would imply that the bearish momentum is in charge, attracting some follow-through sellers. The RSI indicator has skewed to the south, signalling that the breakout is possible.

Resistance: 136.52, 137.06, 137.61

Support: 136.84, 134.75

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD loses traction in the second half of the day on Wednesday as the greenback recovers ahead of the FOMC meeting. From the technical perspective, EURUSD currently trades slightly above the support of 1.0109. The pair has oscillated in the range of 1.0109- 1.0284 since mid-July. Whether EURUSD can hold above the support level would be a turning point to determine the momentum of the pair. If EURUSD falls below the support, then it will attract some follow-through sellers, causing the pair toward further south. The RSI indicator continues to trade within the negative territory, implying that buyers are still on the sideline.

Resistance: 1.0205, 1.0284, 1.0362

Support: 1.0109, 0.9952

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
USDFOMC Statement02:00N/A
USDFed Interest Rate Decision02:002.50%
USDFOMC Press Conference02:30N/A
AUDRetail Sales (MoM) (Jun)09:300.5%
USDGDP (QoQ) (Q2)20:300.5%
USDInitial Jobless Claims20:30253K