Daily market analysis

US natural gas futures contract dropped 16 percent, the worst result in more than three years

July 1, 2022

S&P 500 was down 0.9% at the end of the day. Now, the market seems to be forced to adjust back to reality after the unprecedented pandemic and unprecedented monetary policy.

US natural gas future contract plummeted 16%, the worst performance in more than three years. The plunge came after an inventory report showed a larger–than–expected storage build, thus the market rose the concerned over an oversupplied market.

currency exchange FTX is closing a deal to buy struggling currency lender BlockFi for $25 million in a fire sale, well below BlockFi’s last valuation. The deal came after FTX provided a $250 million emergency credit to BlockFi. The fallout for BlockFi, a lending company, happened following the major sell-off and the major plunge of assets. Funds have struggled with liquidity issues as counterparties fail to maintain and meet margin calls.

Main Pairs Movement

WTI price plunged 3.44% on Thursday following the news that OPEC+ decided to stick with the planned oil production hike. The Middle East will increase monthly production to 648,000 barrels per day in August with the original plan.

AUD/USD edged 0.40% higher and closed with 0.69013. The Australian dollar out- weighted against the greenback following the concerns that a more aggressive move by major central banks might pose challenges to global economic growth.

EUR/USD advanced 0.43% and finished at 1.04836 at the end of the day. The advance came as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell clarified that the more significant mistake would be to fail to restore price stability.

Gold remained bearish, dropping 0.58%, to $1,807 on Thursday. During the ECB forum, Jerome Powell mentioned that the US economy is well-positioned while imposing more tightening policies in response to inflation. The factor has held back the bets on gold, deteriorating the demand for the precious metal, gold.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD gained 0.34% over the previous trading day. The U.S. PCE figures came in at 0.3%, below estimates of 0.4%; however, year over year PCE came in at 4.7%, in line with the Fed’s expectations. During Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, he stated that price stability would still be the priority of the Fed, but it would be a mistake if the central bank sacrificed the economy to achieve price stability. On the other hand, ECB president Lagarde’s speech did not shed much light on the central bank’s intentions regarding interest rates shortly. On the economic docket, manufacturing PMI from Germany and the U.S. will be released today during the European trading session and the American trading session, respectively.

On the technical side, EURUSD rebounded from our previously estimated support level of 1.038 and is heading up towards 1.0494, which was previously a support level but has since changed polarity and is acting as a short-term resistance level. RSI for EURUSD sits at 43.69, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, EURUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.05754, 1.06315

Support: 1.0382

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

GBPUSD gained 0.48% over the previous trading day. The broad-based U.S. Greenback allowed the British Pound to rise against the Dollar. During Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech at the ECB’s annual forum on central banking, he stated that the U.K. is currently being hit with a large income shock that could hurt the overall U.K. economy. The BoE continues to be stuck between raising interest rates and slowing the economy as the country faces a different situation than the U.S., where the economy still seems to be healthy. PMI figures from the U.S. will be released during the American trading session tomorrow.

On the technical side, GBPUSD has consolidated around our previously estimated support level of 1.2123 and successfully found demand to trade higher. Resistance at 1.2381 remains unchallenged. RSI for Cable sits at 41.17, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, GBPUSD currently trades below its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 1.2381

Support: 1.2123, 1.20824

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

USDJPY retreated 0.68% over the previous trading day. The retreating Dollar snapped a four-day winning streak for USDJPY. During his speech at the ECB forum, Fed chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the healthiness of the U.S. economy and reiterated the central bank’s commitment to trimming inflation with interest rate hikes. The near-term decrease of the USDJPY will not be sustained as the Fed and the BoJ continues to adopt diverging monetary policies that will increase the interest rate difference between the two countries.

On the technical side, USDJPY has retreated from our previously estimated resistance level of 136.57, but the pair remains firmly on an upward trajectory. The support level at 134.6 remains unchallenged. RSI for USDJPY sits at 61.13, as of writing. On the four-hour chart, USDJPY currently trades above its 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Resistance: 136.57

Support: 134.6

Economic Data

CurrencyDataTime (GMT + 8)Forecast
HKDPublic HolidayAll Day
CADCanada DayAll Day
JPYTankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)07:5013
CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)09:4550.1
EURGerman Manufacturing PMI (Jun)15:5552
GBPManufacturing PMI (Jun)16:3053.4
EURCPI (Jun)17:008.4%
USDISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)22:0054.9